FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
STRATEGIC REPORT
GOVERNANCE
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT SCENARIO ANALYSIS Scenario analysis is used to deepen understanding of the risks the Group faces and permit a consideration of a long-term time horizon. Within each scenario events with varying degrees of certainty can be combined, including adaptive behaviours or political action. The iterative process for assessing climate change scenarios is illustrated by the following diagram:
1.
7.
Start of process Pathway is agreed (for example UK government legislates that UK will achieve net zero in emissions by 2050)
Document finalised risk measurement and monitoring outcome under each scenario
2.
8.
Workshops are convened with business experts for each of the risk areas
Propose amendments to the risk appetite tolerances and management information based on the climate change analysis undertaken
Climate risk drivers represent climate-related changes that could give rise to financial risks
3.
Each workshop identifies the risk drivers and transmission channels for each risk area
4.
9.
Assess the impact of the scenario on the UK and on Just
Summary report of the analysis presented to the Just Group plc Board/Group Risk and Compliance Committee (“GRCC”) for review, challenge and approval of the: (i) scenario analysis; and (ii) change in risk appetite. Areas for further analysis proposed where required
Transmission channels are the causal chains linking climate risk drivers
to the financial risks faced by companies
5.
Identify management actions, both pre-emptive and post-event
Outputs from these processes are used to assess the need for revised risk appetites for potential climate change impacts
6.
10.
Identify early warning indicators (“EWIs”) for each risk area
Incorporate results in the Group’s risk management and reporting framework
Just’s climate scenarios are anchored on two parts: detailed property scenarios (please refer to section headed “Climate risk - Lifetime mortgage portfolio” on page 28) and the wider Network for Greening the Financial System (“NGFS”) climate scenarios:
NGFS SCENARIOS
RISK PROFILE
ASSUMPTIONS
Net Zero 2050
Relatively low physical risk combined with relatively high transition risk.
UK, US, EU and Japan reach carbon net zero by 2050. China makes progress in meeting its carbon net zero pledge by 2060. This requires early and stringent implementation of climate policies and innovative techniques but still results in projected 1.5°C rise from pre-industrial average global temperatures.
Nationally Determined Contributions (“NDCs”)
Moderate to severe physical risks, but relatively low transition risks.
All pledged policies included even if not yet implemented. Emissions decline but still lead to projected 2.5°C rise.
Divergent Net Zero (“DNZ”)
Highest transition risks of all, more acute in consumer sectors than industrial.
Carbon net zero reached by 2050 but with higher costs due to divergent policies with more stringent policies in the transportation and buildings sectors.
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