FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
STRATEGIC REPORT
GOVERNANCE
CARBON FOOTPRINT The assumed carbon emissions of our lifetime mortgage property portfolio are shown in the table below:
tCO 2 e tonnes per annum
Average emissions per US$ million of lifetime mortgage balance outstanding
13.1
Based on lifetime mortgage portfolio as at 1 January 2021.
The emissions calculation uses assumptions based on the EPC rating that is held for the property, implied by the property postcode or modelled (available for about 95% of the portfolio). The average tCO 2 e for each property was 4.61. Total emissions were adjusted for the proportion of the total property value represented by the outstanding loan balance and expressed per US$ million of the balance. The methodology differs from the Science Based Target Initiative standards for residential mortgages as they do not provide guidance for lifetime mortgages. INSURANCE RISK The Group’s primary insurance risk exposure is to longevity risk, through products such as our Guaranteed Income for Life product. The insurance risk exposures to climate change are highly uncertain and have not yet been quantified in the Group’s risk scenarios. Further development is expected in this area as more research and data becomes available.
In recent decades life expectancy has increased due to medical advances and lifestyle changes, and that the general underlying trend is expected to continue in the future, albeit with some short/medium term disruption through the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most deaths in this country relate to conditions such as heart disease and cancer, with air pollution contributing to only about 5% of all UK deaths. The overall impact of climate change on longevity is likely to be secondary through lifestyle changes rather than direct. Interacting factors, including government policy and individual lifestyle choices, make it difficult to accurately predict the extent to which climate change could impact on longevity, but the impact can reasonably be expected to evolve gradually over the years.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LONGEVITY RISK
DIRECT IMPACTS
Temperature variations
Periods of extreme cold or hot weather are likely to lead to a significant increase in deaths, primarily among those in already fragile health. Much of the impact on mortality rates may result from advancing deaths over relatively short periods with a lesser impact on long-term mortality rates. A warmer winter climate in the UK could in time lead to increased longevity. Reduced pollution from fossil fuels and vehicle emissions from increased use of renewable energy supplies and electric vehicles should lead to improved air quality and with time a reduction in the associated deaths. Increased frequency and severity of floods and storms could lead to the loss of lives through lasting localised socio-economic harm or less likely through direct mortality events. The impact may be moderated through risk mitigation or adaptation. The transition to a low carbon economy may lead to lifestyle changes, such as lower meat consumption, which could improve life expectancy. However, other lifestyle trends, such as alcohol consumption, could reduce life expectancy. Increased flooding and drought may cause significant stress to the global food chain. However, a food supply interruption severe enough to materially impact longevity seems unlikely given the UK’s developed economy and infrastructure. Mortality varies significantly from the lowest to the highest income groups. The economic impact of climate transition risk could reduce wealth overall with a greater impact on lower income groups. Lower economic activity could result in reduced tax revenue potentially impacting government spending on healthcare. Diseases, usually more prevalent in warmer conditions, may emerge for which the British population carries no natural protection. However, a well-developed healthcare systemmeans that the occurrence of sustained material deaths in the UK is unlikely.
Reduced air pollution
More frequent and severe floods and storms
INDIRECT IMPACTS
Lifestyle changes
Global food chain and dietary changes
Economic conditions
Emergence of new diseases
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