Strategic Report | Governance | Financial Statements | 47
A summary of how Just has interpreted each scenario is provided below:
disorderly
too little too late
NGFS SCENARIOS ASSUMPTIONS Divergent Net Zero (“DNZ”)
Net zero reached by 2050 but with higher costs due to divergence with more stringent policies across all sectors, primarily focusing on the transportation and buildings sectors. Availability of carbon dioxide removal (“CDR”) technologies assumed to be lower than for Net Zero 2050. Emissions are in line with a climate goal, giving at least a 50% chance of limiting global warming by the end of the century. UK, US, EU and Japan reach net zero for all greenhouse gases by 2050. China makes progress in meeting its carbon net zero pledge by 2060. This requires immediate rigorous policies to be introduced. CDR needed to reach this goal, to be in line with sustainable levels of bioenergy production. This will result in net zero CO 2 emissions by 2050. Assumes only current implemented policies are preserved leading to higher physical risks. Emissions continue to grow until 2080 leading to around 3 degrees of warming and irreversible changes such as rising sea levels.
Divergent net zero (1.5 C)
Net Zero 2050 (“NZ2050”)
Current Policies (“Hot House World”)
Net Zero 2050 (NZ2050)
Current Policies
ENHANCEMENTS As part of the scenario analysis, we have further enhanced our approach in the following ways: 1. Modelling and tools: – Developed a tool to further analyse the impacts of climate- related scenarios on the investment portfolio – Improved modelling of carbon emissions on the LTM portfolio through refined assumptions – Improved analysis of projected emissions on the LTM and Credit portfolio 2. Risk Exposure – Analysed emissions data to identify where high intensity exposures exist across the portfolio 3. Data integrity – Enhanced data processing and tools for analysis of emissions across the portfolio – Compared data across providers and against issuers’ reported data
orderly
Hot house world
Physical Risks
Low
High
Source: derived using the NGFS climate scenarios NGFS Scenarios Portal.
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